The Urban Institute's Tax Policy Center has released Dr. Lucy Dadayan's latest monthly state fiscal survey results and here is the resulting info-graphic map for the period March - August:
Percent Change in State Tax Revenues Since The Start of COVID-19
March-August 2020 vs March-August 2019, percent change
Dr. Dadayan notes that "Between March 2020 and August 2020, total tax revenues declined 6.4 percent, personal income taxes declined 5.1 percent, corporate income taxes declined 10.5 percent, and sales taxes declined 5.7 percent."
The difference between this latest map and the map that the UI TPC published in July for the period March - June is striking: The epicenters of the greatest fiscal stress (bright red for YOY negative change of greater than 10%) have now moved to the sun belt:
Percent Change in State Tax Revenues Since The Start of COVID-19
March-June 2020 vs March-June 2019, percent change
So one might think that the concept of federal replacement of non-recoverable state and local tax and fee revenue shortfalls would have picked up more bi-partisan support as several of the largest state governments like Texas and Florida which are now experiencing the highest levels of fiscal stress are controlled by Republicans.
And maybe there is more bi-partisan support building for the Problem Solvers Caucus framework or the SMART act. But if so, the near-certain failure of the Administration and Congressional leaders to agree and get anything done before Election Day - which some reporting like this 10/12 piece from the NYTimes by Alan Rappeport and Jeanna Smialek has attributed in major measure to disagreement over state/local Covid aid - demonstrates that real home-state bread and butter issues still don't rank high enough in the Senate to restore anywhere near the degree of bi-partisanship we saw last spring with the speedy design and passage of the CARES legislation.
The culture war issues driving the Supreme Court nomination process and the resulting Judiciary Committee knife fight that I'm trying to drown out with my emphatic keyboarding continue to trump everything else. (Get it? nudge nudge, wink wink...)
Comments