My colleague, Institute Senior Fellow for Energy Policy Arthur Rypinski takes a somewhat more optimistic view than I recently took in my recent posting on President Biden’s offshore wind initiative which aims to deploy around 30 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy off US coastlines within nine years.
The Institute has today published Arthur Rypinski’s policy research brief on three of the key challenges to timely implementation of the 30 GW plan, with Institute Intern Jackson Segal’s (Brown University, ’22.5) assistance. The brief points out that the Biden Administration is justified in promoting offshore wind development as an important component in a national strategy to transition away from fossil fueled power generation, as offshore wind is typically stronger and less variable than onshore wind. Unfortunately, the United States currently has no offshore wind projects under construction, and less than 0.4% of wind energy generation over the past twenty years has been offshore. The federal government has relevant discretionary authority to promote offshore wind, and it can play a significant role in counteracting the challenges for Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states in scaling up offshore wind generation.
Ten coastal states have enacted renewable portfolio standards requiring up to 70 percent (New York) of electric power to be supplied from renewable sources by 2030. In total, the thirty states with renewable portfolio standards will need 90 gigawatts of newly constructed renewable energy sources by 2030. Many suppliers are interested in meeting the regulatory demand by building new offshore wind plants, especially given the substantial tax credits currently available for wind projects. The Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has leased tracts for 23 projects, eleven of which are currently being permitted.
Public opinion can significantly hamper offshore wind projects. The Cape Wind project, for example, was terminated after Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard homeowners complained that it would depress property values, among other things, a phenomenon I call NIMOV (not in my ocean view). Fortunately, new tracts are generally at least 15 nautical miles offshore, so only turbines taller than 75 feet will be visible above the horizon. BOEM should continue to select lease areas that minimize conflicts with some local stakeholders to smooth local permitting processes. However, increasing opposition is also coming from fishing industry interests, who are worried about fish habitat disruption, not by visual impacts.
BOEM must complete a variety of studies before new offshore construction can begin, and slow study completion presents another risk factor for offshore wind deployment. Fortunately, the Biden Administration has proven adept at quickly completing these reports. After President Trump moved to halt consideration of the Vineyard Wind – 1 project in December 2020, for example, BOEM was able to complete the project’s Final Environmental Impact Statement by early March, and it approved the project’s Construction and Operations Plan in early May. President Biden can support offshore wind development by ensuring that BOEM meets ambitious by achievable study timelines.
Perhaps the greatest risk to new offshore wind projects comes from competition by other renewable energy sources. Solar energy, for example, meets renewable portfolio standards at generally lower costs. However, the Northeast’s high population density and wooded, hilly geography and cloudier weather patterns limit the feasibility of utility-scale solar facilities, helping level the competitive playing field with other clean energy technologies including offshore wind in the region.
A more potent near-term clean energy competitor is hydro-power. Hydro Quebec, the giant provincial hydroelectric utility, has excess power it can export to the Northeast. Transmission projects like the Champlain-Hudson Power Express (New York) and Appalaches–Maine Interconnection Line (Massachusetts and Maine) will facilitate renewable energy imports, e.g. to replace de-commissioned nuclear plants like Indian Point. Over the longer term, imports from Hydro Quebec could potentially facilitate seasonal electricity swaps, as Canada experiences no summer air conditioning peak and the excess Northeast offshore wind energy produced in winter could help meet Canada’s winter heating peak.
Thomas Edison supposedly said that genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. The Biden Administration has taken important (inspirational) leadership steps to encourage the development of offshore wind, but way more hard governmental and private sector (perspirational) work must now be done to achieve anything like 30 GW of actual off-shore wind deployment around the US. Politically, for instance, the Administration should support the continuation of the Production Tax Credit to keep new offshore wind projects profitable. Administratively, the Administration must ensure that the constellation of agencies involved in studying, and permitting and helping finance offshore wind development coordinate effectively, potentially through the creation of an Intergovernmental Offshore Wind Taskforce or even maybe even one or more regional power marketing authorities or federally-owned corporations like TVA.
Please read the full report here and watch for future Institute briefs addressing other challenges to implementing the 30 GW OSW plan.
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